Martín León, meteorologist: “Esta DANA debe ser un revulsivo, Aemet tenía datos como para dar el aviso rojo 3 días antes.”

Francisco Martin Leon He has worked for the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) for more than three decades and is one of the most popular climate and weather reporters on the networks after his retirement. since Weathering. The embargo of guilt, a veteran meteorologist, confirms that he has witnessed “several” disasters, such as “neither Pantanada del 82 nor Gota fría del 96”. Los modelos de predicción, he insists, allow them to accurately predict the devastating impact of this DANA. Consider warning and alarm systems Even in advance to get emergency help.

Can DANA be destructive? ¿Necesitamos un 'aviso negro'?

Discrete. He Aemet durante 36 años justamente sobre fenomenos seriously. In this case, since six or seven days ago, the forecast numerical models gave a very active DANA situation. Five days in advance, we saw that on the 28th, 29th and 30th, they can collect 300 liters of water per square meter. It is not barbardad regarding meteorological weather conditions, these models are no van más allá de estas tan abrumadoras. Y un color negro no addería nada absolutely nada.

Embargo, las precipitationaciones acumuladas superan de largo esas previsions.

It happened as with Filomena: approaching the 28th and 29th, all the models pointed to the Andalusian territories – from Málaga to Almeria, Murcia, Albacete and, above all, a zone that stands out noticeably in the Union of Valencia. Predicting up to 300 liters is an aberration, a flood, for a model with a resolution of 10 km. There is something to look forward to in the Iberian Peninsula.

¿Do you adequately consider the danger of the episode to the public?

Solving social social problems: I am informed about the infravalorados. We knew that a very active DANA condition would create a favorable environment for the development of organized, intense, moist and deep storms. Aemet puso un aviso rojo el martes por la mañana de tipo observado, es decir, cuando ya tos de 150 to 200 liters. Give two or three days' advance notice to accommodate personal weather conditions.

¿Cómo se podría haber concienciado mejor de que esta no iba a ser “una tormenta más”?

Here's our example in the US with two hurricanes affecting Florida this year. In the first case, the governor issued an emergency evacuation order, and in the second, President Biden called for evacuation. I'm not saying that the president of the government in Spain should go, but if this is a phenomenon that happens every 30-50 years, someone at a high level should face it. Another thing we need to import is predictions based on the effects of events on the population. Se hace en EEUU y en parts de Europa, pero en España todava no.

¿Cree que el 'fiasco' del año passado en Madrid El aviso de Es-alert y la DANA que no alcanzó la capital Need to restore the last warning?

Creo que no. There is a certain conservatism in the face of issuing red-level alerts, and I would argue that a salir con un rojo seen over two or three days is more valuable, especially now that we have more powerful forecasting tools. However, in any case, the decision-maker depends on the attitude that depends on the policy. The decision to suspend classes in muchos pueblos on the 29th was very good, but it would be better to avoid today, avisando a la gente para que trabajase desde casa.

Llama la atención, no obstante, que se hayan alcanzado 500 l/m2 and high temperature with Chiva. Nadie previó tanto ¿Qué ha passado?

Los modelos numéricos underestimate the rain. But there is one more thing: Ahora tenemos muy cerca un deposición de gasoline de primera, el mar Mediterráneo. The heat of the water accumulates a lot of energy in it and acts as a supplier of steam for the strongest storms. The quantities required for registration are determined in the final. Numerical limitations of the model: prepare for human, predict, no boldness added, no prediction.

What are the “Mesoscale Convective Systems” meteorologists have detected with this DANA?

There are different types of storms. A simple storm lasts 10 minutes, a deep storm lasts six to twelve hours, but these are the systems we're talking about. large groups de tormentas en racimo que se organizan entre ellas para crear un the organism is multicellular, con un ciclo de vida de major duración parecido. Pueden Alcánzar proportions descomunales como en este caso, que recibean el nombre de “mesoscale convective complexes“. La Pantanada de Tous del 82 was produced by the first mesoscale convective complex identified in Europe.

Based on requirements: they must be based on a relative relationship, without any solo relationships.

Of course. You can catch 200 liters in 24 hours, but there is no problem in Bardenas, economic and social, economic, etc.

¿How to integrate the sources or the biggest events that have had a devastating effect in Spain?

In October 1982, La Pantanada de Tous was a revolution that revolutionized the forecasting technique of the Old National Institute of Meteorology. Encouraged cooperation with Civil Defense and creation of a warning plan. This DANA should be a new revolution to meet, review and update population early warning plans and warnings for various organisms. Hey que hacer frente, por ejemplo, a la escasez de personal in Aemet.

Aemet suma has now become the scapegoat of negacionismo and its violent attacks, an additional difficulty.

Me conozco las teorías conspiranoicas. Let it be alive. He blocks dozens of people. Why? Pay attention to this meteorology and climate, because it can be contrary to ideology and personalities. All I can say is that if science works effectively, it will save lives.

¿Qué podemos esperar de estas'?Danas de nueva generación' que anticipa en una publication?

El Mediterráneo calido es como un bidón de gasoline abierto frente a casa: nada ocurre nada hasta que alguien acerca una llama, y'aquí la llama es la DANA. What will happen in the future? We don't know if climate change will create more DANA, or even less. However, DANA will burn a lot, but that's to prevent lal-de-ahora precipitation.

Is it not possible that the Niño/Niña pattern helps reduce the natural fluctuations of the climate in los próximos años?

En el caso del Mediterráneo, en principio, no. El Niño and La Niña occur too far away to affect them, and the warming trend is increasingly positive. Ya hemos alcanzado los 32ºC este verano, y la zone seguirá calentado.

¿Debemos asumir, port tanto, que los phenomenos extremos forman parte ya de nuestra nueva realidad climática?

You have to be very careful. Situation you need: Relatively reliable and not reliable, no preparation for DANA. Hace falta una completa revision del sistema de visión y de comunicación de los avisos y las alerts a la ciudadanía. From my point of view, it showed that they are very, very memorable.