Preliminary survey after the confession of fraud: the corruption bill against Sanchez leaves the PSOE at 8 points of the PP

Congratulations on the election, PSOE won 109 seats (12 times in Congress as an incumbent) and 26.7% voted 5 times back in the previous election.

Thus, the PP extends its advantage over the socialists to 8.1 voting intentions: Alberto Núñez Feijoo obtendría hoy el 34.8% of votes and 152 seats.

Los populares sumarían thus 43 seats more than the PSOE (which will lose any governing option), although they will remain with 24 of the absolute majority. The sociometric survey was conducted from November 22 to Sunday, 24 with 1227 surveys.

However, take public opinion for granted. Victor de Aldama, quien el jueves ante el juez announced haber payo sobornos al exministro Jose Luis Abalos (650,000 euros), a water assessor Koldo Garcia (250,000), to the current secretary of the PSOE Organization, Santos Cerdan (15,000 euros), y al jefe de kabinet de la vice-presidenta Maria Jesús Montero (25,000).

Todo indica que el empresario solo ha comenza tirar del hilo. After his temporary release, Aldama posted an aviso al Presidente del Gobierno from the prison door: que no se preocupe el Señor Sánchez, que va a tener pruebas de todo lo que se ha dicho [ante el juez]”.

As for SocioMétrica's previous election poll published last October 21, the PSOE lost 11 seats and 1.6 votes.

También el PP retrocede, aunque more levemente: pierde cuatro escaños y 0.4 puntos de voto de voto pollodeo del mes pasado. Los populares pueden haberse vito penalizados for la polemica sobre de la gestion de la DANA, que el PSOE ha utilizado for the generalitat de la Valenciana, debribar al president. Carlos Mazon.

Right now, Vox is experiencing its biggest growth in the legislature: today it would reach 13.5% of the vote, compared to 33 seats in Congress, which would translate to 40 seats. The previous poll in October gave 11.2% of the vote and 29 seats.

Despite the controversy surrounding the resignation of the speaker, Sumar, que hoy obtendría el 6.9% del voto y 13 seats (three more than in October). Iñigo Errejóna la espera de sitarse en el banquillo por presunto acoso sexy a varias mujeres.

However, Sumar lost 18 out of 31 places que obtuvo en las ecciones generales del 23-J. An unmitigated disaster.

Podemos was resurrected in the European elections last June Irene Montero Logró ser elegida eurodeputada, y hoy obtendría tres escaños en Congresso (3.6%). Enough sombra hacer for Plataforma Yolanda Diaz Be careful to ensure the continuity of Pedro Sánchez in Moncloa tras los próximos comecios.

Another revelation of the European elections was the electoral group Se Acabó la Fiesta (SALF). Alvise Perezque obtuvo tres eurodeputados. Sin embargo, the SocioMétrica poll today gives only 2.7% of votes, without options to obtain Cortes representation, después de que trascendiera que Alvise accepted Irregular donation of 100,000 euros from a cryptocurrency entrepreneur que currentlye encuentra procesado ante la Justicia.

Poco respects the constellation of cambia and Gobierno partners. ERC (1.8%), Junts (1.8%) and Bildu (1.3%) are keeping an eye on everyone. El partido say Arnaldo Otegi If you choose 1.1% to register for 23-J or PNV, register.

Mejoran sus results, al pasar de uno a dos pututados, tanto el BNG como Coalición Canaria (today governs the archipelago with the PP). Including Congreso, escaño, la CUP (que se beneficia de la bilidad de ERC) and la España Vaciada.

Cifras, cambia radicallymente la actual dinámica de bloques. El PP and Vox sumarían hoy 192 iscaños (or 193 if UPN is included), exceeding the absolute maximum set at 176.

La”most of the investmentAllow Pedro Sánchez with Moncloa tras los comecios del 23-J solo sumaría 156 places. Called Canaria Coalición (CC) 154 times, it's very popular.

He created El bloque de izquierdas PSOE, Sumar and Podemos are reduced after 125 MPs. If Pedro Sánchez de seguir en la Moncloa decides to dissolve Cortes and call elections at this moment, they will completely destroy his chances.

Más aún, teniendo en cuenta que las revelaciones sobre el caso KoldoCon Víctor de Aldama cooperated before the judge, aún pueden tener un alcance mucho mayor al conocido so far.

The analysis of the transmission of sounds explains well the results of the earthquake recorded in the last few weeks. The PP continues to be a party loyal to its voters: it maintains 84.2% of its supporters in the 23-J elections. Además recibiria al 5.7% de quienes votaron entonces al PSOE and 7.7% de abstuvien.

However, PP does not receive a significant transfer (only 2.2%) of old Vox voters. On the contrary, the party of Abascal 80.5% antiguos vote and 5.5% procedente del PP. In addition, he managed to capture 9.4% of those who abstained.

PSOE is considering Aldama's confession before the judge. Only 69.2% of those who voted for Pedro Sánchez in the previous election would vote again. Another 6.5% moved to the ranks of Sumar and 4.1% went to Podemos.

Technical data sheet

The survey was conducted by SocioMétrica between November 22 and 24, 2024. 1.227 Interviews consist of additional panels of n=10,000 individuals representing socio-demographic segments.

The final results were adjusted using a weighting variable that takes into account gender, age, state and voting memory in the last three elections.

Maximum error: 3% (average deviation of 1.1% for SocioMétrica en voto en gen23 fue and 0.8% for eu24). There is no possibility. Director: Gonzalo Adán. Dr. en Psicología Politica y Professor de Psychometría y Técnicas de Investigación Social. SocioMétrica is a member of Insights + Analytics Spain.