Crónica de la muerte del Gobierno alemán announced: por qué la coalition sámáforo de Scholz estaba condenada al collaps

And so, after days of rumors about his possible fall and three years in power, he collapsed la coalition semáforotal como se la conoce por los colors de los tres partidos que componen (red, yellow and green). Probably no one expected the opening of the first economy of Europe periodo de incertidumbre en un momento tan inoportuno, in full recession and only after learning that the next occupant of the White House is proposing to implement, among other things in one of the European products y acabar con las ayudas a Ukraine. Ahora bien, lo que todo el mundo parécia prever era que el pacto entre social democrats (SPD), greens (Die Grünen) y liberals (FDP). That was it.

“Era flour matrimonio muy mal avenido que ha ido aguantando por responsabilidad histórica, para hacer frente al proteccionismo que siguió a la pandemia ya la invasionón rusa,” he explained. Hector Sanchez MargalefResearcher and European policy expert at the Barcelona Center for International Relations (CIDOB). The analyst has no problem, it cannot cause internal disputes.

In May, 62% of Germans felt very unsatisfechos choose one of the three parts Protected by IPSOS. In September hardly hands 16% de los alemanes decían estar contentos by the action of the federal government. Again, los socios han sido los que han concluded that the union was not sustainable.

¿Principio del fin? In principle

In principle, the coalition gained success and popularity. He was born in September 2021, when the Social Democrats won the election, but won by just two points over the CDU/CSU's Christian Democrats. Por For the first time in 70 years The two parties that have traditionally replaced power in Germany, SPD and CDU, did not come juntos al 50% delos votos. This opened up a new political scenario. The grand coalition or alliances passadas, lossocialdemócratas, lederados por Scholz, logarron pactar con liberales y verdes, que ese año habien cosechado muy buenos results. La promesa con la que ese inédito tripartito tomo el poder fue la de “hacerse cargo del futuro” y “apostar por el progresso”.

“En la tradición politica alemana los gobiernos en minorityá son una rara avis; siempre son fruto de Most of the expansions en el parlamento, lo que en parte explica que esos parties se pusieran de acuerdo entonces”, says Alberto Bueno, Professor of Political Science at the University of Granada and the University of Leipzig. But at the same time, the expert, this change took a long time. ver con The end of the Merkel era. “Había la necesidad de que llegasen nuevos partidos, a pesar de que Scholz venia del Ejecutivo anterior ya pesar de que ya había discrepancias entre los tres socios”, soistene.

The distance between the units from the unit was obvious, but it would mark the beginning of the end of the series Russia's aggression against Ukraine en febrero de 2022. “La coalition no tuvo ni even tiempo de tener una honey luna”, señala Sánchez Margalef. “Fue flour shock structure at the level of foreign policy, but also commercial, energy and economic policy the voltage is too high del tripartito”, coincides with Bueno.

Luego, un giro histórico, Alemania decided to cut military spending and give up Russian gas. There is no fault that los tres socios disutieran sobre ello. Los Verdes, captain of the party leader, Robert Habeckand Minister of Foreign Affairs, Annalena BaerbockThey wanted to send weapons to Ukraine by showing their companies in front of Moscow. It is rarely social democratic states. Y es que desde la Ostpolitik (Policy of approach to the eastern block of the Federal Republic of Germany Chancellor Willy Brandt was introduced en los 70), han enarbolado una posición más rusófila. Como muestra, su apoyo Construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.

This meeting was the first of many. After giving up Russian energy, on which it was heavily dependent, Germany was faced with the task of finding new supplies. energy security crisis. In Los Verdes, traditionally distinguished by its anti-nuclear stance, it was forced to respond quickly. emergency situation. Other issues, China's interests, large social commerce, products. Made in Germany he The crisis of the German industrial sectorabove all in the strong automotive sector. So, in the last two years, the country has gone It is the locomotive of the European economy almost being el wagón de cola.

Economy, friction field

More precisely, it was disagreements about how to drive a car that caused the collapse of the entire government of German traffic lights. The economy of la stancada y debilitada del país. “Es el área donde hay más divergencias entre los partidos, y se ha creado la tormenta perfecta para que todo acabe estallando”, Bueno explains to EL ESPAÑOL.

No obstacle, la pelea en este ambiente viene de lejos. 2023, federal law disputes, la Justicia alemana propinó un duro golpe al Gobierno al sentencian que EUR 60,000 million cannot be reassigned There is no benefit for any pandemic or climate conditions. Three-way options are also available for impulse projects for energy independence. Sobre todo porque estaba echado el freno de la deuda, Control the constitutional world and the relevance of March.

“There is a structural shock in Ukraine the voltage is too high triple”

Alberto Bueno, Professor at the University of Granada

It is the best choice for 2025. Ye es que la receta de los liberales (recortes masivos de gasto y rebajas de impuestos) are going head-to-head with the Social Democrats and the Greens, who are ready to lift the debt brake and increase government spending.

Estas diferencias irreconcilables son las que llevaron el miercoles al canciller a comunicar la salida de su socio y annunciar que se presentation of a motion of confidence predictable perderla –ya que no cuenta con una majority parlamentaria– y forzar así la convocación de election expectations. Esa es la única via que le queda, ya que ni el Parlamento puede autodisolverse, ni el ksner puede hacerlo.

La fecha elegida por el jefe de Gobierno es 15 de enerolo que situate la cita electoral en el mes de marzo. Until then, without the Liberals, the Government is in the minority and faces the challenge of approving the 2025 budget in the Bundestag.

Asunto personal… y election

I met the appearance of Scholz named Lindner. “egoísta” and “quadraculado”. Different means of communication, often Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitungthey interpreted the harshness of these words as an argument va más allá de lo ideológico y que roza lo personal. Personal as well as election. The legislature also has an election tally from 11 years ago.

“Quizá Scholz believes that liberals van a cargar con la caida del Gobierno y que él va a restore initiative policysi es que alguna vez la ha tenido”, soistene Sánchez Margalef. Un movimiento ariesgado si se tiene en cuenta que las encuestas pronostican un enorme retroceso de los socialdemócratas. “Busca dar un golpe de efecto COIDOB”, he added.

However, invite liberals to the rescue. En Regional elections in Saxony and Thuringia en septiembre, los liberales (y los verdes) was obtained there is no result. Parlementos together with consiguieron solo representation. The fear of leaving without representation in the Bundestag led Lindner entrencherarse en su línea prespuestariaI think that maybe this way you can restore the support of the liberal electorate. “Igual simplemente trata de anticiparse para no seguir perdiendo”, believes Alberto Bueno, de la Universidad de Granada.

Put up for sale to ensure the impossibility of the policy. According to a survey published by the IPSOS demoscopist institute on November 7, if the elections were held on the same Sunday, the coalition democratic CDU/CSUlederada por Friedrich Merz, He won with 32% of the vote. In second place, with 18% of the vote, the far-left AfD swept the regional elections.

The social democrats of the SPD will take the third place with 15 percent, the greens will take the second place with 11 percent, and the BSW will take the third place.Newly formed anti-immigration party of the left– up to 8%. A la cola would be the liberals of the FDP, who require a minimum of 5% to enter the Bundestag. Perspective very disturbing para el que ha sido el principal partido bisagra de great parte de los gobiernos democratica de Alemania.

If possible, before the beginning saber qué pasará a partir de eneroThe outcome of the crisis in 1982 did not cause any difficulties. left the coalition con los socialdemócratas de Helmut Schmidt y agabaron chancellor al democrat Helmut Kohl.