Justify Tezanos for mistakes in Unidos

1. Security and deviations: ¿Technicos or more?
2. It has manipulation tools
3. The CIS response: more transparency and rigor
4. Lessons for demoscopy

In a recent article published in Temas magazine (número 360, December 2024), Jose Felix Tezanos on the table an unsettling question: “¿Son fiables las encuestas como instruments de Election forecast?”.

Through an analysis that combines academic analysis with a surprisingly critical look at demographic instruments and the interests that surround them, Tezanos examines the reasons behind apparent “failures” in polls, as a paradigmatic example Donald Trump little United States of America.

Security and deviations: ¿Technicos or more?

Tezanos recuerda cómo, en las EE presidential elections. UU.las encuestas ofrecieron una imagen de Apply for candidatesAccording to him, “public publications are presented to gain a major degree advantage for Trump.” This shows that it is not a matter of deviations within the usual statistical error limits, but the opposite is a deeper political phenomenon.

In this context, Tezanos emphasizes that deviations in election forecasts are not only caused by methodological or technical errors, but also by socio-political factors, e.g. Increasing use of polls as a political weapon. In his opinion, the apparently “balanced” presentation of the candidates' capabilities in 2016 could be used to reduce reactions to the possibility of Trump's imposiera.

It has manipulation tools

Tezanos realizes what often happens. It is used to confuse and make mistakes. Justamente la accusación que se realiza contra él desde algunas empresas demoscopicas españolas.

Tezanos continues that these polls, far from being neutral, become a tool to serve specific political and economic interests. “La Misuse of questionnaires in the election campaign se ha convertido en una rutina”, he even confirms that some demoscopic companies have been bought by consortia interested in manipulating their results.

The author also points out how these experiences are erosion of democratic principles. According to him, we are helping to create a “new type of democracy of the powerful” where voting loses its fairness and the media becomes a partial actor.

The CIS response: more transparency and rigor

Desde su experience al frente del Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas (MDB)Tezanos defiende el cambio de paradigma en las encuestas is carried out by this institute. Bajo su dirección, asegura Tezanos, the CIS abandoned traditional election forecasts and adopted a model based on them. Reliable trends and scenarioscon un focus en aumentar la transparency y la quality methodology.

According to Tezanos, this methodology allowed CIS It is close to the real results of the electionsen contraste con los llamados “consensos demoscópicos” is put forward by otras encuestas. Not a word about the noisy deviations associated with surveys regularly distributed by Otras enquestadoras en España.

Lessons for demoscopy

The article concludes with a call to reflect on the role of polls in modern democracies. Tezanos invites you not to rely on polls that serve political strategies rather than genuine analysis of public opinion. Most sus propias palabras, “There is no need! Not even one of the best.”aunque recognose que estas siempre serán preferibles a las “auténticas Castañas” (sic) que buscan manipular en lugar de informar.

Tezanos' analysis raises a key question in the air: Can Demoscopy regain its authority and independence in the context of increasing political and economic polarization? Also, as we said, it does not respond to the countless criticisms circulating in Spain's democratic sector with its methodology, which is considered favorable to the government party and always tends to overestimate the PSOE's options.