More than 330 million residents of the 50 states that make up this Tuesday United States of America Deciderán quién ocupará el Despacho Oval los los proximo 4. The electoral race has ended after a historic campaign, which has ranged from the replacement of a candidate to another assassination attempt. El objetivo tanto de la democrata Kamala Harris como del republic Donald Trump es alcanzar los 270 electoral votes needed; en un sistema, el estadounidense, que es proportional y donde el ganador se lleva todos los votos que reparte el estado. Además, para dar más emoción a una noche ya de por si igulada, de todo el territorio de EEUU There are 7 states that will hold the key to these elections y en los que los candidates han focused buena parte su campaña, conscientes de que sin conseguir la majority de ellos sus aspirations a la Casa Blanca se esfumarán
Los swing situations o estados bisagra se llaman así al no tener una tendencia clara de voto. Estados clave pueden cambiar in every election, because in the past there are those who are Democrats or Republicans, but in recent elections they have changed and are added to those who can apply to both one candidate and the other. For options, do the following: Pennsylvania (repeat 19 sounds), Georgia (16 votes), North Carolinae (16 sounds), Michigan (15 votes), Arizona (11 votes), Wisconsin (10 votes)y Nevada (6 votes).
Este momento las encuestas apuntan a un empate técnico, por lo que cualquier bolsa de votos que en otro momento hubiera sido irrelevante in the electricales puede ser essencial. So cualquier tema puede influencer en que un comunidad decidir votar o no is a candidate. From attracting Arabs from Michigan to mobilizing African Americans from Georgia or Latinos from Arizona, Nevada or Pennsylvania. For “Par el Partido Democrata bu camino mas lógico una victory es 'muro azul” in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. You don't need anything“, assure a 20 minutes Jason Xidias, professor de Relaciones Internacionales de la Universidad Pontificia Comillas, adds that Republicans should keep Carolina del Norte and try to win others like Pennsylvania, the cornerstone of this election.
Pennsylvania, “The Keystone State”
It's no coincidence that both Harris and Trump have stepped into this situation several times over the past few weeks. Republican candidate for 2016 This state is the key to Casa Blanca. And the Democrats learned from the mistakes of the past, because the population of big cities like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh was enough to give them victory in the so-called “Keystone State” (El estado de la piedra angular, en). Spanish).
10% of the state's population is black, and Latinos are close to that percentage. At one of his last meetings in Philadelphia, Vice President Harris addressed the predominantly African-American Christian Compassionate Church and asked it to vote to “decide the future of the nation.” In addition, he was at the barbershop Philly Cuts, where he listened to several young African Americans about the direction of the country. Harris is aware of this le está costando llegar a los virones de esta comunidadbecause he also supports Obama to campaign in a historically Democratic segment of the population, but Trump is increasingly closing the gap. Joe Biden won by only 90,000 votes.
For Jose Antonio Gurpegui, director of the Franklin-UAH Institute, Pennsylvania is the most typical state. votante de hombre blanco, que vota republicano y mujeres que votan democrataque además cuenta con las minorías étnicas donde la diferencia entre ambos partidos se ha ido reduciendo. “Different elected a large majority of Democrats, but narrowed the first- and second-place differences to elect Obama in the 1940s,”
“If the candidate wins Pennsylvania and Georgia, I'm sure he'll win the election because he's sure some will fall,” explains Gurpegui, who, like Xidias, is confident he's trailing by 19 electoral votes. don't think anyone's going to get to 270 in Pennsylvania.” Although polls in recent months have shown a narrow margin in favor of Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania, the dynamic has shifted in Trump's favor in recent months. bir un día de lassecciones está limentare por encima.
North Carolina, Trump's case
Pennsylvania is key to winning elections, but it's not enough to settle for this state. A este estado bisagra le tiene que acompañar otros y es aquí donde démócratas y reublicanos intendan hacerse con los que historicallymente más ha beneficiado les les. In the Republican case, the bet is clear: Carolina del Norte. In 50 years, Democrats have only won the state in 1976 with Jimmy Carter and in 2008 with Barack Obama, although the Republicans' last win by a narrow margin has led to it being considered más de los swing situations.
In this state, Democrats need a high turnout of 23% of the African-American population to win the election. In addition, Carolina del Norte also has an important voter pool with excellent research and polls confirming that it is more likely to vote Democratic than Republican in this election. Well, Jason Xidias knows that “Best Choice for Kamala Harris Carolina del Norte” “It's impossible to argue,” you'll say.
Carolina del Norte is close to 16 compromises and 1 point where Trump is relevant. El magnate sabe que en este estado (with 75,000 votes in 2020) están puestas sus opciones de ganar After appearances in Michigan and Wisconsin on Friday, he traveled to Gastonia and Greensboro, North Carolina, on Saturday to hold penultimate meetings before the end of the campaign.
Harris also attended meetings in Georgia and Charlotte, North Carolina on Saturday. Yes, Gurpegui recuerda, en estado también se elige en estas ecciones al gobernadorIt is another aspect that is important for the control of the legislative chambers in these elections and that “the result is aventaja, parece parece que se va votar a un gobernador démócrata to the presidency of Trump Kamala en la carrera”.
Del 'muro azul' al peso de las minorías
Both candidates proved that they needed to get more information. Along with Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, another state that qualifies for this “blue wall” is Michigan, followed by Pennsylvania. swing situations Harris and Trump have more meetings this campaign. Michigan has the largest Arab American population in the countryit practically doubles. There are topics like Israel's attack on Gaza and US support for Netanyahu.
“El tema de Gaza can have a decisive result in the presidential race,” said Gurpegui, assuring that small communities could hold the key in unas adjusted elections. The history of the Democrats, Ejecutivo de Biden (Harris es Parte Como Vice-Presidenta) contacted Netanyahu. “That doesn't mean everyone will vote Republican, but they might stay home; Although Kamala Harris has no parapeta to Biden's decisions,” says Gurpegui. Something similar to this question is also happening with university students who held historical camps against the decisions of the United States in the first stages of the conflict in the Middle East. su Gobierno.
Otro lado, otro de los feudos republicanos que Biden consiguió arrebatar for sorpresa y que será importante en estas ecciones of Georgia. After Washington and Mississippi, Georgia has the largest population of African Americans in the world. Even so, Obama's historic election failed to alienate Republicans from the state, as experts consulted say the state's African-American community does not typically have a strong turnout. “A parte de la questión de ser una mujer (que está influyendo en los virones afroamericanos) otro motivo importante por el que muchos afroamericanos no apoyan a Kamala es porque they are disappointed with the economic policies of the democratic party Trump could have handled it better,” said Jason Xidias.
However, the Comillas professor points out that, unlike elsewhere, this is a state where the Democrats can take over because “Atlanta is a pretty progressive city.” que si consiguen unirlo a una alta partcipação Afroamericana podridan cambiar la tendencia actual de las encuestas que dan a Trump como Ganador.
Along with African-Americans, another important group that will be important in key states is Latinos. In southern states like Florida and Texas, the Latino vote has historically been heavily weighted, although there are two swing situations que también lo tierran: Nevada y Arizona. In the final week of the campaign, Harris visited these two locations and supported artists such as the Mexican band Los Tigres del Norte, Mana and Puerto Rican singer Jennifer López, drawing in this large community that had been voting less and less. .
“What happens in the case of the Spaniards is that each time they consider themselves less Spanish and more trabajador. “, Gurpegui exposes. “Ellos ya son estadounidez y lo que les preoccupa es poder adquiri una casa o la la inflation.” The main point for this group is the economy“, he confirms.
An example of these is the state of Arizona, where more than 30% of the Latino population lives It was the hostility of the Republican Party. However, since 1948, Democrats have won only in 1996 with Bill Clinton and in 2020 with Biden. At the other extreme is Nevada, which has the fifth largest proportion of Latinos. He voted democrat in the last 4 electionsalthough Republicans have narrowed the gap in recent elections. The republic of Arizona, the country of Arizona, is a different choice to honor our country. As for Nevada (as in Pennsylvania), Trump has been slightly ahead of Harris in recent days, despite winning for several weeks.
El día cinco de noviembre, the whole world will be watching these nations as they try to decipher what will happen the next day. Las claves de lo que sucederá la tienen ellos. Located in asiento in Casa Blanca.
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